Be a Smarter FOREX Currency Trader: Three Basic Principles

Below I will describe three basic principles that may come in handy for currency traders. They are very easy to implement and potentially take advantage of as you will see.

Principle 1

Some currency traders find that it is useful to always trade a given currency pair at the very same time every day. The reasoning for this is that most of the other traders buying or selling that currency pair may also trade at the same time. Major trading pits may also be working the exact same shift every day. This technique may be especially useful for currency traders who exploit technical analysis. Again, the reasoning for this is that it may be possible to standardize the trading conditions if one trades during the same time frame every day, if only for a very little bit. However, that small bit of standardization may yield several pips worth of profit. Nevertheless, it is readily obvious that the foreign exchange market can be very volatile and random.

Principle 2

Certain currencies trade with a certain volatility at a certain time. Once you've finished practicing your trading skills on a demo account and you decide to test the waters using your own investment capital, you may want to minimize the amount of liquidity and volatility to hedge your risk. Alternatively, you may want to increase the risk involved, and potentially increase your profit potential. (It should be noted that very heavy risk is involved under any circumstances.)

The foreign exchange market follows the sun around the world moving from the United States to Australia and New Zealand to the Far East, to Europe and finally back to the United States. Overall foreign currency trading volume is determined by which markets are open and the overlap in the times that these markets are open. Currency trading volume is relatively high 24 hours a day, but there are considerable peaks in activity when the British, European, and US markets are open simultaneously, which is from 1 pm GMT to 4 pm GMT. Pacific Rim markets, such as Japan and Hong Kong, show a dip in their trading volume while there is extensive volume in the US market at the very same time. Nevertheless, it is still possible to perform technical analysis on Pacific Rim currencies. By trading during a certain time frame, one may be able to either minimize or maximize the level of volatility (and risk) for a given currency pair.

Principle 3

Although the above is a general statement about the activity volume for certain currencies, it may be a good idea to attempt to capture the level of volatility for given currency pairs. You can potentially use Bollinger bands, a tool used by technical analysts, to quantify volatility. Bollinger bands compare volatility and relative price levels over time. Some currency traders cannot trade a day in their life without using Bollinger bands, while others may not find any use for them; it is really up to you to decide whether Bollinger bands are of any use to your specific situation.

I have described three basic principles that may potentially come in handy for currency traders in the foreign exchange market. They are very easy to implement and may reap rewards (or lack thereof) depending on market conditions. Hopefully these principles will help you come up with your own successful strategies for trading currencies in the foreign exchange market.

Joshua M. Kunken is Currency Analyst for ForeignMarketWatch.com. His articles may also be found at ForexTrack.com.

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Trading Profitably on the Foreign Exchange Market

You may be asking yourself "how does one begin to trade profitably as a currency trader?".

First, it is important to closely monitor foreign equity markets to attempt to predict or model how their respective currencies will perform against other currencies, ideally, currencies that are not very closely related, nor proportional, to the former currency.

For example, Mexico's economy is closely linked the the U.S. economy, in some respects, but in other respects, they are not very directly proportional since Mexico's economy is currently improving as a consequence of increased consumer financing, an increased number of remittances from family members in the U.S., and other factors.

Back to our original point, when you begin to notice that an equity market is about to become bullish, it may be a signal that the currency of the country in which the equity market you're looking at is based may be about to rise. Conversely, if the market turns bearish, that may be a bad sign for the country's respective currency. Nevertheless, you may still be able to capitalize on bear markets and economies by short-selling a currency pair. That is one distinguishing feature in currency trading: you may bet against a country's economy (including your own!) by betting against that country's respective currency.

Other currency fundamentals to consider include a country's interest rates, deficit, exports and imports, as well as, and probably very importantly, oil prices. Look at how the recent OPEC meeting affected oil prices and how that in turn had a considerable effect on the DJIA.

Joshua M. Kunken is Currency Analyst for ForeignMarketWatch.com. His articles have been featured at ForexTrack.com.

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The strength shown in the U.S. currency thus far in 2005 should prove to be short-lived. The strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the past eighteen months will begin to show signs of moving closer to more normal levels over the next couple months. The signs of a slower economic growth will likely cause a shift in sentiment among currency traders toward the more fundamental problems facing the U.S. economy. The United States trade and current account deficits show no signs of retreating anytime soon. In fact, we expect the coming trade figures to show further deterioration in the balance of trade over the next few months. The major industrialized nations outside of the United States continue to experience anemic economic growth. This continues to place further pressure on the U.S. dollar as the United States consumer continues to buy goods produced in Europe, Japan, and China.

While we expect the dollar to resume its gradual fall against most major currencies, the major wildcard in our forecast is of course China. Recent information coming from China's top decision makers indicates the Chinese are in no hurry to adjust the current value of the Yuan-Dollar relationship. Should any talks of a possible revaluation emerge later in the year, the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar would quicken as currency traders would buy the Japanese yen, and other freely traded Asian currencies, that would likely benefit from a revaluation.

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